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There’s always the possibility of a surprise at the state cross country meet — all it takes is one major personal best or an injury on the course to potentially shake up the field, but for the majority of the 2022 fall season and now heading into Saturday’s championship race, two teams seem to be a slight step above the rest in Class 3A’s boys competition.

Pella’s #1 and North Polk’s #2 ranked teams appear to ready to collide at the Lakeside Golf Course in what could be a strong head-to-head race to the wire for the top trophy.

The Dutch are seeking their first state trophy (top three finish) since 2015 and a third-ever championship, the last of which came in 2011. North Polk was last year’s 3rd place team, and the senior-heavy squad has had a strong finish to the 2022 fall calendar, most impressively winning the deep and talented Raccoon River Conference title.

Click here for the girls preview.

What Coach Doug Cutler says about the 3A boys race:
“Obviously Winterset and Carlisle, we just saw, and Marty [Mitchell] always has Carlisle ready for state year in and year out. So those pack teams, if they can get in quick enough, they can be scary. North Polk has four seniors who are great guys — everything I’ve heard about those gentlemen is outstanding. You know that for their senior year, they are running for everything they possibly can. They are also dependent on their top five guys, so those guys have to run well; they have two sets of twins there and you know they are going to be pulling either other along, so I expect North Polk’s best race of the year, so we’re going to have to have our best race of the year. The other team that looked really good at state qualifying that I know that entered my brain is Glenwood; they had seven guys at 17 [minutes] flat and faster and Bryant Keller really had a fantastic race against Ethan Eichhorn, who is definitely one of the contenders for the state title, along with Jedidiah Osgood of Marion and Isaiah Hammerand of Western Dubuque — those are the guys you are going to see up there with Zach Sporaa, Chase Lauman, and Canaan Dunham, hopefully.

I thought last year’s state meet between DCG and Marion was just an epically beautiful race between two teams that really dominated all season and they did it at state. I think that’s what North Polk and Pella could be — and maybe another team squeezes in there and gets the attention as well, but it’s just fun knowing we’ve gone through all of this together and we’ve worked the way we have, we’ve enjoyed the process and pursuit of excellence, and we’re going to give it a shot one more time, and we have a chance.”

Let’s break down the field in the Class 3A’s boys race (rankings are the final heading into state):
Pella – ranked 1st
In most sports, there is such a thing as “peaking” at the right time and having momentum, and wouldn’t you know it, the boys in green and white are looking as fast as anyone heading into Saturday. Pella put together one of the most dominant state qualifying races in school history against a field that included #3 Winterset and #7 Carlisle, having all seven runners take All-District recognition and finish under 17 minutes. The dynamic duo of Chase Lauman (15:36.22 at the district meet) and Canaan Dunham (15:37.6) may still have more left in the tank to chase down top five finishes, and Nathan Vander Waal (16:13.56) and Noah Schuknecht (16:32.26) both appear poised to at least contend for All-State (Top 15) spots as well. Seniors Cooper Vandevoort and Zack Neumann both ran at the state meet last year, and bring needed depth and experience, with Devon Browne recording some serious times as he fought for the 7th spot in the deep Dutch lineup. Pella is fast — very fast, and if they come close to replicating their success from the state qualifying meet, they will be difficult to defeat.

North Polk – ranked 2nd
If one team can knock off the Dutch from a date with destiny, it’s probably the Comets from North Polk. The group brought back their entire state team from 2021 into the fall season and have had an excellent campaign — and are the last and only Class 3A team to beat the Pella boys head to head, although that came all the way back at the Central College course in early September. Four of their runners were in the top 30 poll in Class 3A heading into state qualifying, including Zach Sporaa (3rd), Max Sporaa (15th), Alik McIlravy (17th), and Ethan Stierman (29th). Times across state qualifying sites are hard to judge and appeared to be a tick slower in Humboldt than at the Pella site — so let’s look at the results, and the Comets had those four earn All-District honors in a race that included #6 Gilbert and #12 MOC Floyd Valley. The biggest concern for North Polk is that their #6 and #7 runners have consistently finished far behind the top five, so the margin for error for the Comets–especially if Pella has a good day, is slim. But if twin Max can close the gap with Zach, and if the Stierman brothers can push ahead of Pella’s 5th place finisher, the window definitely exists that they could be the top team at Fort Dodge this Saturday.

Glenwood – ranked 3rd
If anybody ranked outside of the top three heading into last week’s state qualifying meets has thrown themselves right into the championship discussion with their postseason performances thus far, it’s Glenwood. The Rams looked the part at their home course at state qualifying, with top runner Bryant Keller (ranked 11th) finishing just four seconds behind #2 ranked Ethan Eichhorn of Lewis Central (15:39.73 for Keller). Andrew Smith (16:15.18) and Liam Hays (16:27.10) finished 3rd and 4th and all seven Glenwood runners were All-District and just .56 seconds away from all timing in under 17 minutes. The field — based on IATC rankings, was a bit weaker than Pella’s qualifying site (#11 Lewis Central and #13 ADM), and that might be the only “negative” thing to point out in what was otherwise a stellar performance. The Hawkeye 10 Conference champions may not be talked about nearly enough heading into Saturday — but they will still need their “A” game to be the ones to dethrone the Dutch and Comets, although they have a great shot at coming home with some top three hardware.

Winterset – ranked 4th
The Huskies are right on the cusp of the top three trophy race after a pair of strong races to finish their season — but they will have work to do if they are going to defeat the last two teams they placed 2nd to heading into the state meet. Winterset was the runner-up to North Polk in the Raccoon River Conference meet on October 11th and had three All-District finishers of their own (Mason Back – 16:05.47, 3rd; Sam Hensley – 16:33.95, 6th, and Ethan Easter – 16:35.87, 7th) at the district race against Pella last week, with their five scoring all coming in the top 20. But with four Dutch runners finishing above their No. 2 Hensley and No. 3 Easter at the Pella Sports Park (albeit closely) and the Comets safely getting their top three well ahead in a similar scenario at the conference race, Winterset will need a jump from their pack of runners to get themselves into the mix of the top two. That’s not to doubt the Huskies, but they might need a break or a few bumps in the road from the top two to move ahead of either.

Marion – ranked 5th
The Wolves came into the preseason as the top-ranked team in 3A, and the 2021 runners-up to DCG gave the Mustangs quite the battle a year ago. Marion boasts #1 Jedidiah Osgood, who appears to be the slight favorite to win what will be a loaded top ten in the boys race (15:33.94 at state qualifying) and Cooper Cook is a solid #2 runner who came in a full minute behind his teammate at the West Delaware course. But therein lies the challenge for the Wolves and why they haven’t been in the mix of the top three discussion the way others have since the opening weeks of the season, and that’s simply because they have quite the spread between the phenomenal Osgood and the rest. Jordan Fischer, Jakob Regennitter, and Chris Oberbroeckling all came in at the district meet within nine seconds of each other, but approximately 45 seconds behind Cook, and over a minute and half behind Osgood — which equates to dozens of runners at the state meet in between. The WaMaC champions have had a fine season, but it would take quite the improvement from their 2-5 runners to find a podium finish ahead of any of the four teams just mentioned. Osgood’s race for 1st will still be quite the highlight their Championship Saturday, and there’s a decent chance they come home with that championship trophy — which is also a special accomplishment.

Gilbert – ranked 6th
As is often the case, but especially again in 2022, there will be some really good teams that don’t win a trophy. The Tigers are right on the line of a top five finish and a sneaky top three dark horse — but there will be work to do. The best news for Gilbert was the finish to the season thus far of 8th ranked William Wadsley, who was 12 seconds behind Zach Sporaa at the Humboldt district site was about the same time behind Zach at the RRC championships (15:54.3) in Adel, good for runner-up medalist in both races. Gilbert has a fairly tight pack 2-6 (18 second spread at conference) that was separated more at state qualifying. The problem is that nobody outside of Wadsley has dropped below 17 minutes for their 5K races in the postseason — and considering the amount of speed on the other top teams, the Tigers are probably on the outside looking in of any top three discussion. But they race in the loaded Raccoon River Conference, and have been tested well all season, so don’t count them out from a solid day in Fort Dodge and finish in the top half of the field.

Carlisle – ranked 7th
Pack team, pack team, pack team — if there are groups that are dangerous in a field designed to run like a state meet, it’s those who can finish closely together. Ironically enough, Carlisle finished 7th in 2021 and found themselves ranked in the same spot heading into state qualifying. They earned that spot in Fort Dodge last fall with a spread between their 1st and 5th place runner of 18 spots and the smallest time spread between those individuals of any one in 3A (17.6 seconds). At the Raccoon River Conference meet there were 45 seconds between Kamden Brown (22nd in 3A) and their 5th runner Brody Roth. The trick for Carlisle is that as of now, they don’t have a clear top 15 finisher at the state field, and while Kael Streeter (30th in 3A) was their fastest runner at 16:38.49 at the Pella Sports Park last week, there were seven others ahead of him from Pella and Winterset. They had the same 40-45 second or so spread between their first and last scoring runner. Unless Streeter and Brown can pull the rest of the Wildcats with them, the way the field has shaped, all of the other contenders don’t have a ton of spread between their 1st and 5th runners and the eventual champion will probably score closer to 50 points as team than 100, so it will be a difficult task to come away with a finish better than their strong 2021 showing unless the Wildcats can pull themselves a few members into the All-State mix.

Mount Vernon-Lisbon – ranked 8th
Another pack team, and one that may be even closer together than Carlisle–at least at state qualifying, and they narrowly edged #8 Western Dubuque at the Washington course. MVL’s Grady Olberding came in at 16:39.49 — and their 4th, 5th and 6th runners were within two seconds of each other and just 35 seconds behind their top guy. At the 2021 state meet, they were tied with Carlisle for the 2nd smallest pack point-spread one through five and less than a second behind the Wildcats in smallest time difference among their team. But just like the Wildcats, they need to all be a tick faster if they are going to find a trophy or top five finish at the state meet. Olberding was ranked 14th heading into the district meet and he will need that type of finish or likely a bit better to lead the WaMaC runners-up to a special race.

Western Dubuque – ranked 9th
The Bobcats were narrowly defeated at state qualifying by Mount Vernon – Lisbon, but did have a strong race from district champion Isaiah Hammerand (15:43, ranked 4th in 3A), who earned a Mississippi Valley Conference Divisional runner up to the elite Ford Washburn of City High. And their next three in the lineup Quentin Nauman (4th – 16:37.6), Derek Fangman (8th – 16:39.49), and Drew Meyer (11th – 17:03.29) make up quite the top four. But they score five in cross country, and that was ultimately the undoing at the state qualifying site head-to-head with the Mustangs’ pack, as Levi Meyer came across the line in 39th and 53 seconds behind Meyer. The Bobcats race a lot of strong 4A teams in eastern Iowa and are tested, and don’t have a lot of head-to-head history with any of central Iowa’s best, so that may help them in Fort Dodge. Ranked 8th last year heading into state, that’s where they placed, but a lot of that may depend on how the Wildcats and Mustangs’ packs do if they want to repeat or better the feat.

MOC Floyd Valley – ranked 10th
The Dutchmen of northwest Iowa were thrown into a fairly tough district at a fairly tough course in Humboldt, and overall, performed well in a field that included title contender North Polk and strong pack team Gilbert. Trevor Mirande (4th – 17:02.74) and Isaiah Hulshof (8th – 17:09.8) provide a solid one-two punch, but there is a gap between 2-3 that will be difficult to overcome. They were the runners up in a competitive Siouxland Conference race a few weeks ago, winning that title with five top-15 finishers. Much like Western Dubuque — and maybe more so, MOC doesn’t often get to cross paths with the contenders of central and eastern Iowa. They are a team with a unique blend of seniors, sophomores, and freshmen, and it will be very intriguing to see if they fall on either line of the Top 10 in a competitive field, and a lot will ride o if Micah DeYoung (8th at conference), Ian Van Der Werff (12th at conference), and Micah Schmidt (15th at conference) can all take a leap in Fort Dodge.

Solon – ranked 11th
The Spartans have had an athletic run of tremendous success over the past several seasons in multiple sports and were the 5th place team in Class 3A last season. Solon will find it a much tougher task to get back into the top five in 2022. They are the 3rd place team from the WaMaC and finished behind league champions Marion again at the West Delaware state qualifying race last week. A pleasant surprise for Solon was Michael Yeomans (6th – 16:46.58) leapfrogging 16th ranked Brick Kabela (116th 17:09.42) in the district race as both earned top 15 places, and the team had all five scoring in the top 25 overall, with just 43.2 seconds between Yeomans and their 5th runner Evan Burg. They are once again another of the pack teams, but they were 21 points behind the Mustangs at the conference race. Solon put together a great state meet in 2021, and will need an even better day to get close to that team finish in the top five, and will largely depend on if Yeomans and Kabela can hover near the top 20 or higher.

Lewis Central, ranked 12th
The move from Class 4A to 3A never comes with guarantees, but the Titans ran well enough to prove they are one of the 15 best this classification in 2022. Led by star Ethan Eichhorn, who will be battling for the individual title after winning a district championship at Glenwood (15:36.9), the Titans have a strong No.2 in Kade Diercks (5th – 16:29.83), but ADM’s solid pack still nearly nipped them in the 2nd-3rd place race. There are a lot of gaps between runners, which is difficult to overcome in a state race. They had a great day at the Hawkeye 10 conference meet, placing 2nd, but a distant one at that to Glenwood. It’s been two decades since the Titans have been to Fort Dodge, and that’s a great accomplishment in its own right. But Class 3A is also quite the proving ground this year, and it will be a challenge for Lewis Central to crack the top 10.

Clear Creek Amana, ranked 13th
The WaMaC had a lot of depth this fall, and the boys from Tiffin are evidence. After a 5th place race at conference, the Clippers put together a stronger day at West Delaware and finished a sold 3rd behind league rivals Marion and Solon. Brock Hilsman was (ranked 23rd) was 3rd at qualifying (16:39.63) to lead the way, and Isaac Sorensen was an All-District choice in 13th (17:11.9), and both of those two are sophomores. With a pair of juniors who also came in at the scoring, there is still a lot of time for development. Much like a lot of the teams at the lower-end of the pre-meet rankings, it feels like Fort Dodge will be a great chance to improve. A lot of strong future stars will be overshadowed by the greatness up front now, which could fuel these Clippers to bigger heights in 2023.

ADM, ranked 14th
Life in the Raccoon River Conference in track and cross country the past few years is fascinating. While the Little Hawkeye Conference is fantastic in its own right, they don’t share classification as much in the same way those from a bit further west do — and often, those who contend in the RRC are well-tested by other 3A schools by state, and ADM is no exception. The Tigers were the 5th place team in that conference, and were still stronger than most of the field at Glenwood for state qualifying, placing 3rd in a close battle with Lewis Central. ADM is paced by a Timmerman on the boys side–same as the girls, with Torin placing 9th at the conference meet (16:52.4) and 6th at districts (16:35.26). The Tigers feel like they are a team a year away from something truly special — and with six of their seven varsity runners listed as underclassmen, this week in Fort Dodge is probably more about experience and getting a feel or the ground at the Lakeside Golf Course, just as they did last year in a post-Nate Mueller era at state. There’s no doubt that the Tigers could be much higher on this list one year from now.

#15 Fort Madison (unranked before state qualifying)
Surprises are fun! And the Bloodhounds earned a state bid coming into the Washington site unranked. And honestly, maybe we should have seen it coming a little bit when Ft. Madison was just four points behind hosts Washington at the Southeast Conference meet in Fairfield the week before qualifying. And while South Tama and Washington had some standout individuals who will be going to Fort Dodge (Demons’ Micah Rees and Tyler Alderton and Trojans’ Tommy Tyynismaa and Jimmy Brandt — three of whom are ranked in the top 30) a very young Bloodhounds group had the better day, winning by two points over South Tama and eight over Washington to earn the 3rd state bid. Did I say young? They are, led by freshmen Mason McLey (14th – 17:08.3 at state qualifying) and Riley Tripp (15th – 17:14.19), and six of their seven runners are sophomores or younger. It will be critical for those young men to be sponges and soak up the experience this Saturday, and see if they can make the next two years even more special based on what they learn at Lakeside.

The Class 3A state meet will be held on Saturday, October 29th at Lakeside Golf Course in Fort Dodge at 11:15.